Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy.

The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex and multivariate process differentiated across countries, and geographical distance is acceptable as a critical determinant of the uneven spreading. Although social connectivity is a defining condition for virus transmission, the network paradigm in the study of the COVID-19 spatio-temporal spread has not been used accordingly. Toward contributing to this demand, this paper uses network analysis to develop a multidimensional methodological framework for understanding the uneven (cross-country) spread of COVID-19 in the context of the globally interconnected economy. The globally interconnected system of tourism mobility is modeled as a complex network and studied within the context of a three-dimensional (3D) conceptual model composed of network connectivity, economic openness, and spatial impedance variables. The analysis reveals two main stages in the temporal spread of COVID-19, defined by the cutting-point of the 44th day from Wuhan. The first describes the outbreak in Asia and North America, the second stage in Europe, South America, and Africa, while the outbreak in Oceania intermediates. The analysis also illustrates that the average node degree exponentially decays as a function of COVID-19 emergence time. This finding implies that the highly connected nodes, in the Global Tourism Network (GTN), are disproportionally earlier infected by the pandemic than the other nodes. Moreover, countries with the same network centrality as China are early infected on average by COVID-19. The paper also finds that network interconnectedness, economic openness, and transport integration are critical determinants in the early global spread of the pandemic, and it reveals that the spatio-temporal patterns of the worldwide spreading of COVID-19 are more a matter of network interconnectivity than of spatial proximity.

Measuring the effect of distance on the network topology of the Global Container Shipping Network.

This paper examines how spatial distance affects network topology on empirical data concerning the Global Container Shipping Network (GCSN). The GCSN decomposes into 32 multiplex layers, defined at several spatial levels, by successively removing connections of smaller distances. This multilayer decomposition approach allows studying the topological properties of each layer as a function of distance. The analysis provides insights into the hierarchical structure and (importing and exporting) trade functionality of the GCSN, hub connectivity, several topological aspects, and the distinct role of China in the network's structure. It also shows that bidirectional links decrease with distance, highlighting the importance of asymmetric functionality in carriers' operations. It further configures six novel clusters of ports concerning their spatial coverage. Finally, it reveals three levels of geographical scale in the structure of GCSN (where the network topology significantly changes): the neighborhood (local connectivity); the scale of international connectivity (mesoscale or middle connectivity); and the intercontinental market (large scale connectivity). The overall approach provides a methodological framework for analyzing network topology as a function of distance, highlights the spatial dimension in complex and multilayer networks, and provides insights into the spatial structure of the GCSN, which is the most important market of the global maritime economy.

An electrostatics method for converting a time-series into a weighted complex network.

This paper proposes a new method for converting a time-series into a weighted graph (complex network), which builds on electrostatics in physics. The proposed method conceptualizes a time-series as a series of stationary, electrically charged particles, on which Coulomb-like forces can be computed. This allows generating electrostatic-like graphs associated with time-series that, additionally to the existing transformations, can be also weighted and sometimes disconnected. Within this context, this paper examines the structural similarity between five different types of time-series and their associated graphs that are generated by the proposed algorithm and the visibility graph, which is currently the most popular algorithm in the literature. The analysis compares the source (original) time-series with the node-series generated by network measures (that are arranged into the node-ordering of the source time-series), in terms of a linear trend, chaotic behaviour, stationarity, periodicity, and cyclical structure. It is shown that the proposed electrostatic graph algorithm generates graphs with node-measures that are more representative of the structure of the source time-series than the visibility graph. This makes the proposed algorithm more natural rather than algebraic, in comparison with existing physics-defined methods. The overall approach also suggests a methodological framework for evaluating the structural relevance between the source time-series and their associated graphs produced by any possible transformation.

Detecting differences in the topology of scale-free networks grown under time-dynamic topological fitness.

The fitness model was introduced in the literature to expand the Barabasi-Albert model's generative mechanism, which produces scale-free networks under the control of degree. However, the fitness model has not yet been studied in a comprehensive context because most models are built on invariant fitness as the network grows and time-dynamics mainly concern new nodes joining the network. This mainly static consideration restricts fitness in generating scale-free networks only when the underlying fitness distribution is power-law, a fact which makes the hybrid fitness models based on degree-driven preferential attachment to remain the most attractive models in the literature. This paper advances the time-dynamic conceptualization of fitness, by studying scale-free networks generated under topological fitness that changes as the network grows, where the fitness is controlled by degree, clustering coefficient, betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality. The analysis shows that growth under time-dynamic topological fitness is indifferent to the underlying fitness distribution and that different topological fitness generates networks of different topological attributes, ranging from a mesh-like to a superstar-like pattern. The results also show that networks grown under the control of betweenness centrality outperform the other networks in scale-freeness and the majority of the other topological attributes. Overall, this paper contributes to broadening the conceptualization of fitness to a more time-dynamic context.

Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Exploratory Approach based on Complex Network Defined Splines.

Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can prove to be effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management of the available health resources.

Network stiffness: A new topological property in complex networks.

Aiming at serving the interdisciplinary demand in network science, this paper introduces a new concept for complex networks, named network stiffness, which is extracted from structural engineering by assuming that a complex network behaves similarly with a structured framework. This analogy allows interpreting that a complex network can resist against any cause attempting to induce deformation changes to the network's structure, regardless of whether the network is material or not. Within this framework, this paper examines the context of applying the conceptual analogy of stiffness from the field of structural engineering to network science and then it develops computational approaches capturing different aspects of network stiffness so that to be used in complex network analysis. The implementation of these approaches to a real-world network (global inbound tourism network) shows that stiffness can produce interesting insights to complex network analysis about the factors related to changes caused to the structure and the status of a complex network.

Detecting different topologies immanent in scale-free networks with the same degree distribution.

The scale-free (SF) property is a major concept in complex networks, and it is based on the definition that an SF network has a degree distribution that follows a power-law (PL) pattern. This paper highlights that not all networks with a PL degree distribution arise through a Barabási-Albert (BA) preferential attachment growth process, a fact that, although evident from the literature, is often overlooked by many researchers. For this purpose, it is demonstrated, with simulations, that established measures of network topology do not suffice to distinguish between BA networks and other (random-like and lattice-like) SF networks with the same degree distribution. Additionally, it is examined whether an existing self-similarity metric proposed for the definition of the SF property is also capable of distinguishing different SF topologies with the same degree distribution. To contribute to this discrimination, this paper introduces a spectral metric, which is shown to be more capable of distinguishing between different SF topologies with the same degree distribution, in comparison with the existing metrics.

Ultrasonographic diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome: introducing a new approach.

INTRODUCTION: CTS, the most common nerve entrapment syndrome of the upper limb, is being diagnosed by clinical criteria, in most cases supported by the electrodiagnosis method, which appears limits regarding its sensitivity and specificity and suggests an intervening and expensive technique. The purpose of this study was to contribute to establishing U/S examination as a method with at least of the same accuracy with electrodiagnosis. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A sample of 60 healthy individuals and 30 patients suffering from CTS was scanned. The diagnosis was conducted by both clinical and electrodiagnostic criteria, or by clinical criteria supported by postsurgical outcome. METHOD: In order to improve the accuracy of measurements, the anteroposterior to transverse diameter of the median nerve inside the canal and in its entrance was scanned and compared, by sonography. The examination conducted three times for each dimension, and the mean value per individual was calculated. RESULTS: The mean ratios for the 60 healthy wrists was found to range within the interval 0.49-0.88 (presenting a mean value of 0.66), and the corresponding for the 30 suffering from CTS wrists was within the interval 1.12-1.59 (with a mean value of 1.39). CONCLUSION: The statistical analysis of the examination results clearly demonstrates that the interval of ratios over the value 1.07 can be considered completely safe to diagnose that someone is suffering from CTS. In correspondence, a U/S measurement of ratios in the area up to 0.79 is completely safe to opine that this wrist refers to a healthy individual. The intermediate range of ratios 0.79-1.0 suggests a grey zone, which, by the rational of this study, does not include discrete CTS or healthy cases. This "gap" may describe subclinical or mild cases of CTS which were not been taken under consideration and for which there is no rational to interfere surgically. In the everyday's practice clinical point of view, the grey zone cases are considered healthy.